The future of the social security pension provision of Trinidad and Tobago using Lee-Carter forecasts

Andrea Maxwell, United-Kingdom

This paper examines the future trends in the pension provision provided by the government of Trinidad and Tobago. I have looked at this in the context of global trends, namely the ageing of more developed populations, which is resulting in major shortfalls in many state pension provisions. These issues have been discussed in Chapter 1.I have used the Lee-Carter model to predict future mortality rates based on published mortality rates for the period 1990-1999. I then used these predictions to estimate the number of pensioners as well as contributors for 2000-2004 and to determine the required future level of contributions. The Definition of the Model is found in Chapter 2, while the Results and the Analysis of past and future trends are presented in Chapter 3.I have also summarised my findings in Chapter 4 along with solutions to trends found. In summary, I have predicted rising costs to provide future pensions, as a result of the ageing of the population (particularly the female population). There is no easy solution to control increased costs; however increasing the state retirement age may be the most promising option.
Date: 30 May - Time: 13:45 to 15:15 - Room: 252A
Theme: 3.A. Actuarial problems related to the retirement of the baby-boom