Analysis of trends in mortality near or during retirement for four european countries

Daniel Ryan~Richard Humble~Hande Love, United-Kingdom

Life expectancy at birth has improved dramatically over the course of the twentieth century. Over this period the greatest improvements in mortality rates have been seen in progressively older ages, a feature which we refer to as "the ageing of mortality improvements”. In this paper we considered two mortality models to capture the ageing of mortality improvements by the fitting of formulaic mortality curves to actual mortality in each calendar year over a selected period. The first method consisted of fitting a Logistic mortality curve to values of qx by individual age. The second method consisted of fitting a Weibull distribution to the probability from birth of death at individual ages, i.e. .We carried out separate examinations as to mortality experience from the Human Mortality Database (“HMD”) for four European countries: France, Italy, Spain, former West Germany and former East Germany. We have treated former West Germany and former East Germany as separate countries (and for convenience refer to them as such) as mortality experience for these two former countries was separately presented in the HMD over the investigation period.Trend lines were fitted to the progression in those parameters underlying the formulaic mortality curves and projected to derive mortality curves in future calendar years. The financial implications of the results were illustrated by calculating annuity values based on these projections.We compare the differences in projected future mortality between the various countries. We discuss the implications of the mortality projections in light of some of the views expressed by experts in the fields of demography and medicine as to the limitations that should be considered in forward projecting mortality based on historical trends.
Date: 1 June - Time: 14:15 to 15:45 - Room: 341
Theme: 3.A. Actuarial problems related to the retirement of the baby-boom