The Changing Foundations of Actuarial Mathematics

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Lee Smith~Roger Jones, United-States
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Summary:
Actuarial Science has developed largely in response to demands on the actuarial profession. A conscious effort to develop a consistent scientific framework has not yet occurred. As a result, actuarial science consists of a group of seemingly analytically unrelated topics. Bits of mathematics, finance, economics, accounting, and other areas of thought are stitched together to produce a framework from within which actuaries can work. This mix of subject matter is more a result of evolution than thoughtful design. In the meantime, developments in other areas of thought, such as physics, complexity science, biology, chemistry, economics, and information science have created new ways of viewing and analyzing physical and social phenomena. A new theoretical foundation for actuarial science will incorporate some of this new perspective. This paper will survey the mathematics and conceptual frameworks of particle physics and complexity science. It will show how actuarial phenomena can be seen in the broader context of a dynamic nonlinear fuzzy reality. It will point the way to modeling capabilities more in line with the phenomena being modeled.
 
Date: 29 May - Time: 14:30 to 16:00 - Room: 253
Theme: 9.A. Various topics